Think of Britain’s Covid debacle and the Post Office scandal. As a behavioural scientist, I have seen how ruinous blind belief can be
Confidence is complicated. Ted talks try to teach you how to get it; parents want it for their children; for those who don’t have it, it seems almost impossible to acquire. Entrepreneurs, social-media influencers and job applicants will project certainty even when internally racked with self-doubt – which is perhaps no surprise, given that virtually every talk on confidence is about how to acquire more of it, not less.
And yet too much confidence can have serious consequences. It contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and the Post Office scandal. In my years working as a behavioural scientist, I’ve measured the confidence levels of thousands of civil servants, and created case studies of how overconfident decision-making in government leads to failed policies. I have also seen how it can affect senior decision-making at the highest levels – at the Covid inquiry Matt Hancock, the health secretary in 2020, was described as responding to the crisis with “nuclear levels” of overconfidence.
Dr Mark Egan is a principal research adviser at the Behavioural Insights Team. He holds a PhD in behavioural science from the University of Stirling
