It was no surprise that Moscow stepped aside as the rebels advanced. But this is not the end for Russia in the Middle East
The fall of the Assad regime marks the end of a big chapter in Russia’s presence in the Middle East. However, this does not mean that Moscow is about to withdraw from the region. Its decision not to fight for Bashar al-Assad’s regime – instead airlifting him to Moscow, where he seems set to remain for now – looks more like an attempt to strengthen its presence in the Middle East by getting rid of a toxic asset.
In 2015, the deployment of Russian forces in Syria to support the Assad regime was a milestone in the history of Russian ties with the Middle East. By doing this, Moscow loudly declared its return to Middle Eastern politics, where its presence had been extremely weakened after the collapse of the USSR. For the first time since 1991, Moscow conducted a major military operation in the region. It not only saved the friendly regime from inevitable collapse, but demonstrated its readiness to play an active role in shaping the regional processes beyond Syria. In a sense, the Syrian experience became a necessary prologue to Moscow’s more active intervention in Libya, Sudan and sub-Saharan Africa.
Nikolay Kozhanov is a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University and a non-resident fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House
